Philadelphia at Milwaukee

Milwaukee is home but the pitching and defense are terrible at #26 in errors, second to last in team ERA. They got bombed at home yesterday by the Twins, 8-1 as a favorite. Young Zach Davies goes here with a 19.29 ERA after one poor start. He is prone to walking batters, allowing 18 walks in 36 big league innings. Even in the minor leagues control has been a problem. Philadelphia is rested with the day off yesterday and playing well, winning six of 11, cashing five times as a dog. They come off a 5-4 win over the Mets as a +145 dog. Starter Aaron Nola is winless but has thrown well, fanning 23 in 19 innings with only 17 hits allowed and three walks. And the Brewers are 12-41 vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Take Philadelphia.