Philadelphia at Detroit

Philadelphia's pitching is No. 1 in the majors in ERA (3.09), including seventh in the pen (3.43 ERA). Batters are hitting just .215 off starter Aaron Nola (3.54 ERA). The Phillies are 37-23 UNDER the total as a favorite, including 27-13 UNDER as chalk of -150 or higher. They're in first place and are 34-9 as a favorite of -150 or higher, while Nola is 30-9 as chalk. The Tigers have a losing home mark and are on a 5-11 run overall. Detroit is also on a 7-2 run UNDER the total with an offense that is 20th in runs scored, 26th in on-base percentage, and 19th in slugging. Detroit is a good pitcher's park and starter Casey Mize has a 3.26 ERA at home. But they're 6-18 against teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game. Take Philadelphia + UNDER the total as a Max Play.