Philadelphia at Atlanta

Both of these teams are 8-5, but don't be fooled, one is on the upswing and one is on the downswing. The Phillies won seven of their first eight, but have since lost four of five. The Braves have won five of their last six to grab a share of first place in the NL East. Now they get +140 odds at home and I believe that represents a lot of value. Halladay has been lights out which is why the Phillies are favored heavily on the road. But, if he can't go the distance, the Philly bullpen has been bad. And, Tim Hudson has looked very good thus far. Even Roy Halladay can't save a sinking ship. In his career, he is just 12-23 when taking the mound after his team has lost three plus straight games.  Hudson, meanwhile is 111-49 in his career when pitching at home. I like the Braves to pull the upset.