Philadelphia at Arizona

We haven't taken many favorites this season but I like Philadelphia in this spot. Arizona hasn't swept the Phillies at home in 11 years. They have to get through Cole Hamels to accomplish that feat and I don't see it happening. Not with Joe Saunders opposing. Philly's starting pitching has been sick this year but what has gone unnoticed is how well their bullpen is finishing games. The Phils bullpen owns a 2.31 ERA overall including 1.38 on the road. Arizona's pen has been average at best and that spells trouble. Philadelphia is 40-19 since last season vs. bullpens with a 3.75 to 4.50 ERA. Arizona is just 15-41 over that span vs. an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better (Hamels is at 2.92). The Phillies have been a great road team the past few seasons, going 108-77 overall the past three seasons. Take Hamels and the Phillies here.