Oakland at Kansas City

The Royals have already won two of three so far in this four game series as Oakland. Runelvys Hernandez is awful on the road. But, at home he's 1-1 with a below average ERA. He is 28-16 vs. low scoring teams that put up 4.7 or less runs per game so this is an excellent matchup for him. KC is horrible on the road but decent at home (5.2 runs per game on .291 hitting). Oakland has been killing it since the All Star break thanks to great pitching and defense (they are aonly averaging 4.5 runs per game). Today they start Kirk Saarloos who is 1-3 on the road with a 7.25 ERA. His last three starts (all at home) netted a 7.47 ERA. I see KC scoring here as they are hitting .315 over their past seven games. Oakland is just 5-10 this season vs. teams at 38% or worse. And, road teams that bat under .265 facing a terrible starting pitcher (ERA over 6.70) are just 19-40 (32%) in second-half of the season play over the past decade. KC here.