New York at Tampa Bay

A pair of top 10 teams in on-base percentage clash indoors in Tampa Bay. New York is ninth in on-base percentage, second in runs scored, along with a league-best 252 homers. Yankees ace Luis Severino goes here, with an ERA under three at home, but 4.01 on the road. The team is 11-3 OVER the total when Severino starts. He faces a Tampa Bay offense that is third in the league in on-base percentage. Rays' starter Jake Faria (5.17 ERA) has trouble throwing strikes, walking 32 in 62+ innings, a major concern against the Bronx Bombers. He also has a 5.23 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. Play the OVER.