New York at Tampa Bay

It's not often you get a 54-39 team at home as an underdog. The top two teams in the Majors clash here in Tampa and asking the Yankees to win on the road is asking a lot. Especially considering that A-Rod is struggling right now and has hit .217 lifetime against James Shields. Shields struggled before the All-Star break, but has gone 2-0 with a decent ERA since. He's definitely not the best starter on the mound today as that edge goes to Sabathia. But, I really like Tampa Bay's bullpen and their home field advantage here. While Shields hasn't been lights out, he's been in control, throwing just 31 walks in 135 innings pitched. That's exactly the kind of pitcher that New York struggles against as the Yankees are just 13-15 this season vs. starting pitchers with good control (under 1.8 walks per start). They are also just 20-24 vs. teams with a bullpen ERA of under 3.40. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 17-6 this season vs. starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.50 or better. I like Tampa Bay as a home dog here.