New York at Seattle

Felix Hernandez has had a brilliant season and will be gathering a lot of votes when the Cy Young voting takes place. That may be the case against everyone else, but hasn't been the case against this Yankees' offensive machine. King Felix sports a 5.92 ERA against the Bombers over his career, and between hits and walks from this patient Yankees' lineup he has allowed nearly two baserunners per inning. A.J. Burnett has really struggled for the Yankees, featuring an ERA of 7.67 in his last five starts. This looks like a pitchers duel, but looking inside the numbers, it's more like a bad spot for two good pitchers. The Bombers have played to an 18-7-1 mark to the OVER against a team with a winning home record, while the Mariners have a 12-3-2 mark to the OVER in a series opener. Two good pitchers in a bad situation points to the OVER here.