New York at Minnesota

The fix is in. The powers that be want the Yankees to win this year. How else can you explain that foul ball call last game that handed New York the win? Well, maybe that's a bit too conspiracy theory. Maybe it's just Minnesota trying to lose. An amazingly stupid base-running blunder and 17 stranded runners didn't help their cause. They out-played the Yankees, racking up 12 hits to 17, but still found a way to lose. In the end, the value remains on Minnesota who is getting great underdog odds yet again. The Twins are back home and can exact some revenge with a win tonight. It would be especially sweet for Carl Pavano who was an outcast in New York but has fit in nicely in Minnesota. This line is again way off thanks to the mystique of the Yankees. The reality of the situation here is that we have a home team who has outplayed the visitor. The home team finished the regular season on a 17-4 run and they are in a must-win situation here. Andy Pettite is the better pitcher, but not by much. Should New York be favored here? Probably. But certainly not by this much. Carl Pavano is 19-4 this season vs. teams with a winning record and over his career, he has amassed a 20-9 mark vs. good power teams (those averaging 1.25+ home runs per game). He'll bring a focused, top effort here. I like the Twins.