New York at Cleveland

The New York Yankees were once upon a time, the post season darlings. And although they have still been able to find their way into the post season, winning has become quite the chore. There is a valid reason for their post season futility. They used to be able to wheel out No. 1 caliber starters for the first two games and what they had was either equal to the opponent or better. The last several years the Yankees’ No. 1 starters have been less than what the opponent sends to the mound and winning not only has been more difficult it has become sparse. Take a look at the Yankees’ regular season on the road - barely a .500 team. Here is an example of what is happening. They faced Kazmir three times, Beckett twice, Verlander, Lackey, Carmona, Halladay, Bedard, Francis and Haren once each. That represents the top 13 pitchers the Yankees faced on the road this season. They managed to go a dismal 4-9. More than the 4-9 record was the fact they averaged 3.5-runs per game (RPG) in these contests. They were out-scored 84-46! It speaks volumes of just how over priced these Yankees are. If there weren’t pinstripes on the uniforms and an NY on the cap, this line would be dramatically different. Think about it. If the Yankees had the best record in baseball, playing at home where they are now 16-3 in their last 19 (Cleveland's numbers), what would this moneyline be? We would estimate the Yankees would be -160 to -170. So where is the value on this game? Andy Pettitte has had a solid second half, and he is the "name" pitcher in this contest playing for the "name team.” He is however, not the best pitcher in this game. That right was earned by Fausto Carmona. Carmona doesn't have the name, but names don't get you wins it gets you on the wrong side of where the value lies. Carmona has been the best pitcher in baseball in the AL since the All-Star break. He has gone 9-4 with a 2.26 ERA, allowing just 83 hits in 109.1 innings. Pettitte is 11-3, but with a 3.84 ERA, 111 hits in 103 innings. Teams hit .279 against Pettitte and .217 against Carmona. Now let's look at the Yankees in the post-season in the past several years, and serve up the proof of what we talked about earlier, that the Yankees simply don't have the No. 1 starters to win. Since 2002, or the last five post-seasons, and one game in '07, the mighty Yankees are 11-21 as a favorite, bankrupting their backers to the tune of -23.36 units. They are 1-6 as a road favorite and have produced 0, 3, 4, 3, 3, 3, and three runs in those seven games. That is 19 runs in seven games or 2.7 per game. Their frontline pitching? They have allowed 6, 8, 2, 5, 5, 4, 5, 8, 6, 5 and 12 runs over their last 11 road post-season games. That is 6-rpg! Those 11 games show just one game where the opponent scored less than four runs. The Yankees haven't scored more than four runs in their last seven on the road. So in a nutshell, we have a team that is hotter in Cleveland (32-12 last 44), against NY (27-17 last 44), a team with a much better pitcher, a team playing at home where they are 16-3 over their last 19, against a team that has been a post-season disgrace and they are an underdog? Win or lose, there is tremendous value here on the Tribe and we will take it!