New York at Baltimore

A-Rod is back and they won their first game with him back thanks in part to his home run. His return brings more offense but it also brings back a lot of Yankees-backers who overrate this team. The Yankees have a losing record and they've bled away units for their backers. They are 16-21 the past three seasons as a road favorite of -150 to -175 the past three seasons. Yet they are favored yet again on the road. Although their ERAs don't show it on the early season, Adam Eaton is at least as good as Phil Hughes. And the Yankees bullpen has been awful posting a 6.26 ERA and 55% save ratio. Baltimore has the offense to duel with New York as they are getting 4.9 runs per game (5.1 vs. RHP). They Yankees are just 19-29 the past two seasons in games with a total of 10 or higher. That includes a 3-12 mark when the total is 10 to 10.5 as it is today. Baltimore is 17-8 at home the past two seasons when coming off a big loss by 4+ runs. I like Baltimore's chances here.