New York at Baltimore

The Yankees have beaten the Orioles 16 of the last 20 times they have met. But I'm bucking that trend here. Jake Arrieta goes for Baltimore and he is 2-1 thus far this season and 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA in three career starts vs. the Yankees. In his last meeting with New York, he allowed just 3 runs through six innings. This could easily be a let down spot of sorts for New York given their recent dominance over Baltimore and the situation they are in. New York is susceptible to letdowns as they are just 24-28 on the road after a win the past two seasons. Under Joe Girardi, they are just 178-25 after a game in which they had 6+ more extra base hits than their opponent. I like the live home dog here.