New York at Washington

My how things have changed! Johan Santana vs. the Nats would have normally driven the moneyline here close to +200, but things aren't what they once were. Santana appears to be a fraction of what he once was, and hitters are getting redemption. Santana has just 12 strikeouts in his last five starts - that used to be a one game total! He is also pitching to a 5.96 ERA in his last four starts and the Mets are just 2-7 in his last nine starts. Livan Hernandez has resurrected his career in Washington, where he has outpitched Santana on the season with a 3.10 ERA. He has completed 12 of 15 starts allowing three runs or less, Santana has allowed 4+ in each of his last four. The Mets are poor on the road, while the Nats are much better at home. I'll go with the live dog here and back Washington.