New York at St. Louis

The oddsmakers sometimes struggle with the top pitchers, especially early in the season because they have to somewhat force ceiling on the odds they can put up. This is a blaring example of just the case. Chris Carpenter is posted here as a 2.5-1 favorite to take down the Mets. The problem is that Carpenter is 42-14 in his last 56 as a home favorite for the Cards, so that puts him at 3-1 odds to win, which has value already. He is also 23-3 when listed at -210 or higher, so that is just about an 8-1 choice to win. The Mets are struggling, and the odds here look chalky, but the reality is that they are not chalky enough, especially with the Mets at 8-20 in their last 28 in St. Louis period. Add in Carpenter on the hill, and St. Louis gets the call.