New York at Milwaukee

This line is an overreaction to a few good starts by Jeremy Hefner. He is 2-0 in his last three starts with a 1.89 ERA. But, outside of that he is 1-5. On the road, he owns a 4.11 ERA. This is a cheap line on the home team. Milwaukee is 84-39 the past three seasons when facing an NL team batting .255 or worse (the Mets are batting .234). The Brew Crew has also done very well in expected low-scoring games like this one. Over the past three seasons, they are 113-62 in games with a total set at 8.5 or lower. And, over that same span, the Brewers are 101-53 at home vs. RHP. Take Milwaukee.