New York at Miami

The Mets have the highest payroll in baseball ($364 million) for 2023. The offense was fifth in the majors in runs scored, second in on-base percentage, and eighth in slugging, while the defense was second in fielding percentage with a pitching staff that was seventh in ERA. New York has ace Max Scherzer going, off a season with a 2.29 ERA as batters hit just .207 off him. Meanwhile, Miami is 22nd in payroll ($81 million). The Marlins were 28th in the majors in runs scored and slugging, plus 27th in on-base percentage, while the pitching staff was 14th in ERA. Starter Sandy Alcantara lost two of three versus the Mets last season and the Marlins are 51-73 against right-handed starters, plus 32-65 as an underdog. Play New York.