New York at Miami

Johan Santana is a scary guy. He hasn't lost a start in about ten months and he's never lost to Florida. But that's why we have value here folks. Streaks don't last forever and to get Florida, a 4-1 team, with an ace on the mound at home as an underdog is a gift. Josh Johnson goes for the Marlins and he, coincidentally, has never lost to the Mets. He's 8-1 in his last nine stars with a 3.35 ERA. And in his lone start thus far in 2009, he putched 6.7 innings, notching eight strikeouts to just 7 hits in a shutout performance. Florida has averaged a ridiculous 7.0 runs per game this season. Yes, it's only been five games but it's undeniable that they are pounding the ball. Over the past two seasons, the Mets are just 35-42 as a favorite of -125 to -175. I'll take the live home dog here.