Minnesota at Milwaukee

Am I nuts? Minnesota is 5-16 on the road and they've lost five straight. Am I really picking them here? Yes. It's more of a contrarian play considering that Milwuakee has won four in a row. I like Minnesota here because I think this is a good spot for them. They give Francisco Liriano his first start and he'll be doing everything in his power to take advantage of the opportunity. He's made 12 relief appearances so far posting a 1-0 record and 3.22 ERA. In my opinion we get the starting pithcer advangage with him over Doug Davis and the Brewers. Minnesota's bullpen also gives us a slight advantage. So, it really comes down to offense. The Twinkies have realy struggled to score runs this year. They are averaging just 4.5 on the season. But, things have looked up of late as they've bumped their average up to a very respectable 5.0 over their last seven games. Over that span, they have hit .305. Given how bad they were to start the season, I believe the public hasn't yet adjusted and isn't giving them enough credit for their recent play. Teams allowing 5.2 or more runs/game vs. an opponent allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season are actually 41-21 (66%) over the last 5 seasons. Going with the underdog here.