Minnesota at Kansas City

Minnesota has a shot at the AL Central title. But they have to get through Zack Greinke to get there. Greinke is having a career season for sure. He's on pace to become just the seventh pitcher in history to complete a season with an ERA under 2.10. But I'm fading him today. People get carried away with Greinke, confusing stats with chance-to-win. His stats are absolutely amazing. But, he plays on a terrible team. With a season that puts him in the company of Pedro Martinez and Sandy Koufax, you'd think his W-L record would be stellar. It's not. He's 15-8. The problem, of course, is that it takes a team to win. Not one player. The Twins are 7-1 vs. KC this season so they will be the ones playing with confidence. They are averaging 5.0 runs per game vs. 4.2 for the Royals. They are hot, while KC is not. Minnesota has a winning record (28-19) vs. good starters this season (those with an ERA under 4.00). The Twins won last game 11-6 and they are 21-6 this season after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game. The Royals are 7-16 this season at home after allowing 8+ runs. They are also just 1-12 after allowing 8+ runs in back-to-back games! Minnesota has a 50% shot at least of winning this game in my book and at +170 odds, that spells a ton of value.