Milwaukee at St. Louis

The public is lining up on the Cardinals here like they already know the final score (85% backing St. Louis). Over the long haul, that ends badly for the public. That's what happens when a team outscores the other 15-4 in the first two games of the series. There are lots of reasons to like St. Louis here (including Kyle Lohse) but we are getting value at this line on the Brewers as the oddsmakers have shaded this, knowing the public tendencies. In post All-Star play, the Cards are just 54-57 vs. losing teams over the past three seasons. That includes a 22-27 mark against he worst teams (those at .460 or worse). They are also just 46-48 in day games over the past couple of seasons. And, this year St. Louis is 13-18 following back-to-back wins. I look for a possible letdown here and a surprise Milwaukee win.