Milwaukee at San Diego

We love the value on this moneyline as the oddsmakers have put way too much emphasis on Jake Peavy here. The fact is that the Padres are a team winning at a rate of just 38.3% of their games. How much does Peavy add to the overall performance of his team? There is simply no value. The Padres are 8-12 in Peavy's 20 starts on the season, or a 40% win rate against 38.3% overall. Milwaukee is one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of eight straight games, scoring seven runs a game, with not a single game under five runs during the winning streak. Ben Sheets negates anything that Peavy provides the Padres. He has allowed two runs over his last 15 innings of work, and on the season the Brewers are winning better than two of every three games he starts. The Brewers get the call here.