Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Milwaukee is on a 3-4 run and plays its third straight road game. They've split the first two of this series despite being favorites of -170 and -165. The offense is 19th in runs scored, 21st in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging. Starter Freddy Peralta has a 4.19 ERA on the road and the Brewers are 39-38 as a road favorite of -110 or higher. Pittsburgh is on a 7-4 run and plays its third straight home contest. Pittsburgh is 32-31 as an underdog of +125 to +175, including 16-14 as a home underdog of +125 or more. The Pirates are also 13-5 at home against NL teams with a batting average of .245 or less, so back the home dog. Play Pittsburgh.