Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

Don't look now, but the Pittsburgh Pirates have the best record in baseball as we head towards the all-star break. The Pirates have looked the part, as they have garnered the win in each of their last seven games. That looks like a team you would want to play on, as bettors love the hot hand. But the reality is that over the last 10 years, playing on a team that is on a seven games or more winning streak has a negative -6.4% ROI. The Brewers have managed six wins in their last eight tries in Game Two of a series, and have dominated the Pirates to the tune of 61-24 in their last 85 games. Long winning streaks change the balance of the line, favoring the visitor here, so play on Milwaukee.