Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 31-25 and are 6.5 games behind the hot Cardinals. They will square off at home vs. the Milwaukee Brewers who are off to a dismal 20-37 start on the season. The Brewers, however, have been playing much better of late, as they are 4-3 in their last seven games and have to feel good about their trip to Minnesota, where they took two of three from the AL Central leading Twins. Nelson already owns a win vs. Pittsburgh this season, where he worked seven scoreless innings. A.J. Burnett has pitched over his head and has a poor track record vs. Milwaukee at 2-6 with a 4.65 ERA in his career. The Brewers are 4-1 in Nelson's last five starts vs. a winning team, while the Pirates are just 2-8 behind Burnett opening a series in his last 10. Make the play on Milwaukee.