Milwaukee at Houston

Milwaukee's Chris Narveson has gotten simply hammered of late. Over his last three starts, he's lasted just 4.7 innings on average, posting an 8.36 ERA. Compare that to Bud Norris who has a 2.00 home ERA and a 1.50 ERA over his last three! The Astros don't score a lot, but neither does Milwaukee (4.1 runs per game on the road). Milwaukee is 4-8 on the road, but they are favored here? Over the past couple of seasons, the Brewers are just 31-45 as a favorite of -100 to -150. In expected close games (-125 to +125), they are 36-54 over that span. Since last season, Houston is 31-22 vs. LHP. I’m playing the home dog here.