Milwaukee at Detroit

Both Yovani Gallardo (2.93 ERA) and Justin Verlander (3.39 ERA) are putting together great seasons. The edge here however goes to Verlander who has been unhittable at home (3-0 with a 0.82 ERA). Prior to one off night in St. Louis last outing, he had won seven straight decisions and put up a 1.92 ERA over ten starts. He'll be getting run support from a team that's putting up 5.8 runs per game at home and 6.1 per game in day games this season. Detroit has won the first two games in this series putting up 10 runs and 9 runs. The Brewers are just 18-45 in their last 63 games revenging back-to-back losses in which a team put up 8+ runs on them. They are 19-44 to the run line in that situation. With the run line odds set at -130 to +170 this season, the Tigers are 11-5 against the run line. I like the Tigers here at the big +170 line to win by two or more.