Milwaukee at Cincinnati

You can't trust wild man Wily Peralta of the Brewers. He has a winning record on the season, but he has a bloated 5.54 ERA, and he's getting worse with a 6.06 ERA his last three starts. Milwaukee is a bad road team (5-8), and the Brewers are 15-36 in their last 51 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Milwaukee is on a 1-8 run while the Reds have won six of eight. Starter Bronson Arroyo doesn't walk anyone (seven in 46 innings), which is a must in a hitter friendly park like this. The Reds are 15-5 in their last 20 home games and 12-4 as a favorite. Also, the Brewers are 7-22 in the last 29 meetings in Cincinnati. Play the Reds.