Milwaukee at Cincinnati

Johnny Cueto is 11-5 with a 2.28 ERA this season and has been nearly untouchable at home where he has posted a 6-1 mark, allowing just 12 earned runs and 11 walks in over 53 innings. Backing him up is a bullpen with a 2.21 home ERA. That spells real trouble for a Brewers team that manages just 3.6 runs per game on the road. The Reds have won 13 of their last 15 home games this season when facing a weak offense like Milwaukee's (teams batting .250 or worse).  Dating back to last season, the Brewers are 16-35 as a road dog of up to +150 and this season they are 4-12 on the road following a game in which they scored under 3 runs. Cincinnati is the far superior team with a great pitcher on the mound. Given that, this price is short. So short in fact that I like the + odds on the Reds to win this game by 2+ runs. Take the Reds on the runline.