Milwaukee at Cincinnati

The Brewers are 17-31 on the road for goodness sake. They allow 5.7 per game away from home and their bullpen is 5-11 on the road wiht a 5.36 ERA. How are they a road favorite here? I know, Joe Mays has been downright awful this season. But, this is a classic case of overvaluing starting pitching. The Brewers just aren't good enough to be instilled as a favorite against a winning home team - period. They are 7-16 this season at +125 to -125 and 4-17 after 5+ road games this season (this is their ninth straight). But can't they beat bad pitchers? Well... no. They are 1-10 this season vs. starters who give up 7+ hits per start. Road teams at +125 to -125 with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities facing an opponent starting a pitcher with an ERA of 6.70 or worse are just 13-53 (20%) over the past ten years. Let's take the rare opportunity to fade the Brew Crew as a road favorite.