Miami at Washington

The Florida Marlins may have one of the smallest payrolls in MLB, but when you look at the standings and see 9-1, it makes you wonder how long that can last. The Nationals are off to their typical poor start, but since returning home they have actually outscored their opponents by 18-14, so they are right there. This is also a team that began the year 10-8 at home a year ago, so the opening 0-6 streak to start the season, positions value on the Nats. You also have to wonder what effects having pitched a complete game in his last outing will have on Josh Johnson, who missed half of '08 with arm problems. I like the Nats as a much more competitive team at home than this line indicates.