Miami at St. Louis

The Florida Marlins have an ace in Josh Johnson and he is off to a brilliant 3-0 start backed by a microscopic 0.88 ERA. Despite the fact he has been nearly unhittable, the Marlins have lost two of his starts and he got a no decision in a third. He is just 6-5 in his last 11 road starts, and the bullpen has been the culprit. The pen has logged 13 innings in his six starts and coughed up 11 runs. Johnson, in his last 10 road starts facing a low total from 7-8.5, has seen the Marlins go 2-8. The Marlins are also just 1-6 in his last seven road starts. Big arm, bad pen offers value on the home dog here, so I'll play St. Louis.