Miami at St. Louis

Miami is a bad road team and inconsistent overall, losing six of their last nine. This is their third straight road game, and the Marlins are 41-87 in their last 128 road games, plus 28-63 on the road against a team with a winning record. Starter Henderson Alvarez has a good ERA, but it's mainly at home as his ERA jumps to almost two full runs higher (3.43) away from home. He's allowed more hits than innings pitched and faces a St. Louis offense that doesn't strike out much, and is great at putting the ball in play. The Marlins are 12-29 in their last 41 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 2-5 as an underdog. Miami is also 1-6 in Alvarez's last seven road starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is deadly in this park, plus they are 64-26 in their last 90 home games vs. a right-handed starter. And when these teams meet, the Marlins are 1-4 in the last five meetings, plus 1-6 here in St. Louis. Play the Cardinals.