Miami at St. Louis

St. Louis is off three straight wins but Florida has won seven in a row. Both teams' wins came against some weak competition at home (Washington and Milwaukee for Florida and the Cubs for St. Louis) so I don't read too much into those win streaks. Mark Mulder, like most of St. Louis' pitching staff, has underperformed this year. He's just 6-6 on the year. But, he's 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA at home. He'll face Scott Olsen who's been solid but is off a few poor performances (14 runs allowed in his last 12.7 innings). His bullpen is weak on the road (5-15 with a 5.70 ERA) and Florida just isn't a good road team. Mulder's also off a rough start surrendering 9 runs in just 3 innings to the Mets. But, I look for him to bounce back here as home teams starting a pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 on the season that was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 44-13 (77%) over the past decade. St. Louis, despite their troubles this year, is a very good home team at 38-24. Cards at home here.