Miami at San Francisco

I really like the even odds on this game. Yes, this is a home game for the Giants who are 13-7 in this park. But, Florida is 14-7 on the road and they get 4.5 runs per game away from home, compared to just 3.1 per game for the Giants at home. That's a big difference. The Giants win by pitching alone and that can't sustain them every single game. Ryan Vogelsong has been good this year, but so has Anibal Sanchez (3.02 ERA). Over his last three starts, Sanchez has posted a 1.23 ERA, going 22 innings with just 3 earned runs to 26 strikeouts. I'll take the better hitting team with that guy on the mound, especially considering that the Marlins are 9-2 this season vs. very good NL starting pitchers (those with WHIP of 1.250 or better). The Marlins are 13-7 this season as an underdog and I like them here. I also like the UNDER. Both of these pitchers have been outstanding and the bullpens in this game are two of the best in the Majors (.277 ERA and 3.37 ERA). Over the past couple of seasons, San Francisco is 40-20 UNDER vs. teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better. In day games over that span, Anibal Sanchez is 11-2 UNDER. Take the Marlins and the UNDER in this one.