Miami at San Diego

Miami is terrible on the road and a long way from home, off a 3-1 loss here yesterday. Miami is 17-33 away, second-worst in the majors. Marlins starter David Phelps (4-6) is no stopper at 2-4 with a 4.47 ERA in nine road starts this season. The Marlins are 0-5 in his last five road starts. Miami is 25th in baseball in runs scored and on-base percentage, a 5-16 run on the road, plus 9-20 as an underdog. By contrast, San Diego plays its ninth straight home contest, and the Padres are 36-17 as a home favorite. The UNDER is 33-15-3 when the Marlins face a right-handed starter, and they see Padres righty Ian Kennedy. Kennedy has looked sharp over his past six starts as he now owns a 2.97 ERA with a 27-10 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings since June 18. The UNDER is on a 7-0 run when Kennedy starts, as well as 25-10-1 UNDER the total when Kennedy starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Kennedy is 3-1 with a 3.11 ERA in six career starts against Miami, plus 4-1 when he faces the NL East. San Diego is 5-1 against a team with a losing record, and the Marlins are just 2-7 in the last nine meetings in San Diego, making this a great situational spot for the home team in a game with few runs. Play San Diego and UNDER the total.