Miami at San Diego

The Padres look to avoid the home sweep here. They have lost three in a row and 15 of their last 18 games. But let's not forget Florida has been struggling of late too, having dropped five of eight and 11 of their last 21. When we look at run line stats, the story gets better for the Pads and worse for the Marlins. San Diego is 9-6 in their last 15 on the run line while Florida has lost six of their last eight vs. the run line. Asking Florida to win by 2+ on the road here with a Ricky Nolasco on the mound is asking a lot. Nolasco has been posting a 2-4 mark with a 6.99 ERA on the road this seasson. Florida is averaging 2.9 runs per game over their last seven and batting just .248 on the road all season. The Padres don't get blown out often when they are in the midst of an extended home stand as they are here (this is their seventh straight at home). The Pads are 15-2 this season vs. the run line after having played 5+ straight at home including 10-1 after 6+ straight at home. I like San Diego plus the 1.5 this afternoon.