Miami at Pittsburgh

The Pirates are 31-14 at home, playing a losing team and we have nearly even money odds. I'm buying. Jeff Karstens goes for Pittsburgh and he's been great this season. Over his last three starts he's posted a 2.45 ERA and in his two home appearances, he put up a 0.64 ERA, going 1-0. The Marlins are just 20-30 vs. winning teams this year while Pitt is 26-13 vs. losing opponents. Dating back to last season, the Pirates are just 42-71 as an underdog of +100 to +150. Pittsburgh is 21- this season as a favorite. I'm riding that here. Take Pittsburgh to win this game by 2+ runs, at nearly 2-to-1 odds.