Miami at Pittsburgh

The Florida Marlins are the toast of baseball right now, but they obviously won't continue to win at the rate they are. When teams are over-achieving, the pendulum of value begins to swing the other way. Anibel Sanchez has given the Marlins two good starts, but lost in those two starts is a bullpen that gave up four runs, and Sanchez walked six in 11 innings, so those two aspects will catch up to the Marlins. Jeff Karstens came over from the Yankees at the trade deadline last season and immediately paid dividends with 15 innings of shutout work in his first two starts, so the ability is there it just needs to be harnessed. Karstens gave the Pirates six quality starts out of nine, and certainly has the ability to keep Pittsburgh in this one as a dog. I'll go Pirates here.