Miami at Philadelphia

No one wants a piece of Florida in this game. That's why I'm on them. The public is overwhelmingly on Philadelphia (over 80%) in what seems like a gimme. There are no gimmes. Despite a 3.41 ERA, Cliff Lee is just 6-5 thanks to weak Philadelphia bats. Javier Vazquez has been poor this season, but I like Florida's bullpen (3.00 ERA). On the road this season, the Marlins have a winning record vs. the runline. Meanwhile, Florida is just 31-36 vs. the runline this season including 17-20 at home and 15-18 in division games. Florida is 33-12 the past three seasons vs. the runline at -135 to -100 odds. I’m going against the grain here with Florida +1.5 runs.