Miami at Philadelphia

Miami has been terrible at #19 in runs scored and #22 in slugging, and the Marlins have a major-league high 5.10 team ERA. The Marlins are 5-16 against the NL East, plus 7-20 vs. a right-handed starter. Dan Haren goes for Miami, a starter with marginal stuff off a 2014 season where he had a losing road record and a 4.75 ERA away from home. The last three years he's 1-2 against the Phillies. Philadelphia begins a six-game homestand and the Phillies are 45-18 at home when following a road trip of seven or more days. Righty Jerome Williams goes here and the Phillies are 7-3 in Williams' last 10 starts, 4-1 at home and 4-1 when Williams is a home underdog. And the Marlins are 11-30 in the last 41 meetings in Philadelphia. Take Philadelphia.