Miami at Los Angeles

The Marlins have won four in a row and six of their last seven games to climb to within one game of first place. Three of those wins have come at the expense of the Dodgers who are at risk of getting swept at home. They look to Chad Billingsley to stop the bleeding but we think Florida has a shot here. Billingsley is just 4-4 at home this year and right now this team isn't providing much in the way of run support. LA is averaging just 3.7 runs per game at home this season and 3.0 per game overall over their last seven. In day games the Dodgers are just 13-18 while Florida is 13-9. One reason for Florida's success thus far in this series is this is a godo matchup for them. They are now 8-2 this season vs. low power teams (those averaging under 0.8 home runs per game). Meanwhile, LA is just 5-12 vs. solid-powered teams like Florida (those averaging 1.25+ home runs per game). Billingsley is 0-6 this season vs. teams scoring over 4.7 runs per game and we like the Marlins at this price.