Miami at Chicago

Miami is 34-16-3 OVER the total on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. This total is low because red-hot Caleb Smith is on the mound for the Marlins. But he plays his home games in a big park in Miami and this is tiny Wrigley Field. Smith has a 1.50 ERA at home, but that doubles (3.00) on the road. That was the case last year when his ERA was 3.13 at home, but 5.18 on the road, walking 20 in 40 road innings. He faces a Chicago offense that is fifth in runs scored and slugging, tops in on-base percentage. And the Cubs are 16-5-1 OVER the total when Jon Lester faces a team with a losing record. Take the OVER.