At home, Atlanta is a ridiculous 16-3 vs. Florida over the past three seasons. Florida starts Dontrelle Willis but he has been anything but formidable this season. He's just 1-4 with a 6.22 ERA. Not a good sign for Florida here as road dogs of +125 to +175 starting a pitcher wiht an ERA of 5.70 or higher are just 16-57 (22%) in May games over the past five seasons. Tim Hudson goes for Atlanta and he's a very solid 40-12 at home in teh first half of the season. Bravos here.