Los Angeles at Cleveland

The Indians have waited a longtime for Fausto Carmona to pitch the way he did in '07, when he won 19 games. He has battled through injuries, rebuilding arm strength, and appears to be back where he was. Carmona has pitched to a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, not allowing more than two runs in any of the three games. It is the first time he has done so since last May. The Angels are down to Trevor Bell for this one, and he did not impress in his debut vs. the Rays where he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings and served up two long balls. The Indians have relished the role of a favorite where they are 4-0 in their last four, and against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Indians have cashed six of their last seven. All four of those games that the Tribe has won as a home favorite, have gone UNDER the total. These two teams have played 27-11-1 to the UNDER in their last 39 in Cleveland. I’m going with Cleveland and the UNDER here.