Los Angeles at Boston

The Red Sox have really struggled to get hits in the first two games of this series (eight total). I like them to return to form at least today to avoid the dreaded sweep. Don't forget that Boston was down two games to Tampa Bay last year and went on to force a seventh game. This team still remembers the historic comeback vs. the Yankees on way to their World Series championship and it won't allow them to just quit. The Red Sox are just 39-44 on the road but at home here, they are 56-25 - a massive swing. Scott Kazmir is tough, but this Boston team hits everyone at home. They average around 5.0 runs per game on the road but get nearly six per game here at home. The Red Sox are 17-4 this season at home vs. AL teams with an OBP of .345 or higher. Over the past two seasons, they are 30-9 here after scoring two or fewer runs in their previous game. And, with an extra day of rest, they are 14-2 at home this season. I like Boston here. I also like the UNDER. Kazmir as we know is very good. Buchholz has been mediocre this season but Los Angeles' bats actually haven't been doing too much of late. They are averaging just 4.5 runs in the palyoffs and 4.4 runs per game over their last seven overall. Kazmir over the past two seasons is 22-11 UNDER when facing a winning team. He's also 10-1 UNDER over the same span when facing good power teams (those averaging 1.25+ home runs per game). In his last 17 starts he's 13-4 UNDER. Boston meanwhile is 25-13 UNDER vs. teams at .540 to .620 this season. Take the Sox and the UNDER.