Los Angeles at Boston

The postseason simply arrived at the wrong time for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero is hurting, and has been relegated to the DH role, weakening their outfield defense. Chone Figgins their catalyst at the top of the order is in a 1-26 slump (.038) and their top two pitchers Lackey and Escobar are having problems as well. Their pen has fallen off over the second half to now rank in the bottom third of the league. This is a team that was lethal at home, but very ordinary on the road. They finished the season in a team-wide offensive slump. The Angels have produced just 10 runs over their last six games, and are 36-186 in the process, with a team average of just .194. They have not gotten it done at Fenway the entire season, producing just 22 runs in eight games or 2.75 per game. Kelvim Escobar allowed three runs or less in 17 of his first 23 starts or 74% of the time, but finished very poorly allowing five runs or more in four of his last seven! Like the Yankees, the Angels just don't hit or score against quality pitching on the road. Their last 10 games against a quality starter on the road have produced 21 runs in 10 games or 2.1 runs a game. That spells trouble with Escobar on the mound having pitched to a 7.16 ERA over his last seven starts as he has now walked 13 in his last 23.2 innings, and this is a Sox lineup that takes a lot of pitches and draws a lot of walks. The Sox are here because of their pitching which is the only AL team with a staff ERA under four, and their pen ranks No. 2 in all of baseball at 3.10. Diasuke Matsusaka won 15 games, and perhaps was a bit less spectacular than the Sox thought he would be. The key issue upon his arrival was how would he react to pitching every fifth day instead of once a week? Here is the answer. Early in the season it wasn't a problem, but as the season got into summer, around mid-June you could see it was certainly an issue. From mid-June on when Matsusaka pitched in the regular rotation every fifth day he worked 45.1 innings, 51 hits, 33 earned runs, 39 Ks with an ERA of 6.55. When he worked with extra rest or every sixth day or more, here are his numbers over the same period. He worked 66.2 innings, 51 hits, 23 earned runs, 70 Ks, with an ERA of 3.10. To capsulate, Matsusaka was 3.5 runs better on extra rest, to which he is accustomed instead of six more hits, than innings pitched. He was 16 less and also from less than a strikeout per inning, to more than a strikeout per inning. The bad news for the Angels is he is working on extra rest for this game, and they have not faced him all season, which adds to his potential in this game. The Red Sox have been on fire when winning at Fenway, so if you’re going to take them to win, then the -1.5 makes sense. In their home wins the Red Sox have won by an average margin of 4.12 runs a game, and in their last 28 home wins they have been 24-4 to the -1.5 runline, and outscored the opponent by 4.21 runs a game. Conversely, in their road losses the Angels have gone down by 3.79 runs a game, and have lost 34 of 43 (79.1%), by two runs or more. Sox go up 2-0 in the series with a convincing win in game two.