Los Angeles at Boston

The Angels are 75-50 with the lead in the AL West. Boston is 56-70 and fading fast. What's with this line at a near pick'em as the Angels go for the sweep? First off, sweeping on the road is very difficult. Secondly, despite his 5-1 road record, Matt Shoemaker owns a bad 5.18 ERA in eight road appearances. Rubby De La Rosa is 3-1 at home with a 3.25 ERA. So, we get the pitching advantage in a game Boston really wants to avoid the embarrassing home sweep. And, the Angels this season, as good as they have been, are just 5-14 on the road when facing an AL pitcher with an ERA of 4.00 or better. Boston is 2-for-32 in this series thus far with runners on base. That's not going to continue and a reversion to the mean in this one gives Boston a great shot. LA is 2-11 this season on the road after a win by 4+ runs. Boston is 25-13 the past two seasons following a game in which they gave up 8+ runs. This is a classic contrarian play. Take the motivated Red Sox with the better pitcher for my MLB Game of the Month.