Kansas City at Pittsburgh

Zack Greinke started the season on fire, posting eight wins in his first ten starts and putting up a ridiculous 0.84 ERA over that span. Then something happened which we see often in sports - regression to the mean. Greinke is good but not that good, and over his next four games he went 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA. He pitched well last outing but the fact remains, he's still overrated. The Royals are 2-5 in their last seven games averaging just 3.0 runs per game. They are averaging 3.4 runs per game on the road on the season. They are 13-31 since early May - the worst record in the American League by far. They do not deserve to be laying this kind of wood on the road. Especially against a Pittsburgh team that scores nearly five runs per game at home and has posted a 21-13 mark here (22-12 against the run line). The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six, putting up 5.6 runs per game in the process. While the Pirates can win this, Greinke has been good. But to ask the Royals to put up enough runs to win on the road by 2+ runs is really asking a lot. KC is 16-25 on the road against the run line the past two seasons after 4+ straight road games. They are 4-11 this season after three straight losses. Even with Greinke on the mound, the Royals are just 3-11 against the run line on the road the past two seasons when coming off a loss. The Pirates are 10-1 vs. the run line at home in June and I look for that to go t 11-1 today.