Kansas City at Philadelphia

Kansas City is a big dog but is playing well on an 8-3 run. They've won as underdogs of +185, +150, +170, +155, +135, +135, and +225. The offense has erupted for 53 runs over the last eight contests. That included a 7-5 win at Philadelphia to open this series as a +225 dog. Zack Greinke comes off a 7-6 win over the Mets allowing one run in 5 innings. He's allowed 2 runs or less in three of his last five starts. Philadelphia is 4-4 over the last eight games losing as chalk of -170, -140, -110, and -245. The pitching staff is 21st in ERA (4.43) and the defense is 17th in fielding percentage. Starter Taijuan Walker doesn't have great control (43 walks in 119 innings) and has allowed 14 runs in his last five starts (30+ innings, 15 walks, 27 hits). The Phillies are 33-41 at home against AL teams that allow 4.9+ runs per game, plus 3-9 versus a pitcher who gives up one or more homers per start. Play Kansas City.