Kansas City at Minnesota

This one may appear a bit "chalky" laying some heavy wood, but not chalky enough for the overall expectation. Francisco Liriano was by far the best pitcher in baseball with a 1.93 ERA before he was injured, and since he has been totally healthy again, he is again the best pitcher in baseball. When you put him on the mound at home over that time period he is 9-1 with a 1.22 ERA, and the Twins have outscored the opponents 56-19! The problem for the oddsmakers, how can you get action on a team if you put this one where it belongs at -550? Over 10 home starts the expected outcome is the Royals score 1 run here, so unless the Twins get shutout by a pitcher with a 6.60 ERA I look to be in good shape here. Since the Royal staff hasn't recorded a shutout since May 14th, this looks like a lot of value to me, and I'll back the Twins here.